Poor immunogenicity upon SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccinations in autoimmune SLE patients is associated with pronounced EF-mediated responses and anti-BAFF/Belimumab treatment. (preprint)

Novel mRNA vaccines have resulted in a reduced number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalizations. Yet, there is a paucity of studies regarding their effectiveness on immunocompromised autoimmune subjects. In this study, we enrolled subjects naive to SARS- CoV-2 infections from two cohorts of healthy donors (HD, n=56) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, n=69). Serological assessments of their circulating antibodies revealed a significant reduction of potency and breadth of neutralization in the SLE group, only partially rescued by a 3rd booster dose. Immunological memory responses in the SLE cohort were characterized by a reduced magnitude of spike-reactive B and T cell responses that were strongly associated with poor seroconversion. Vaccinated SLE subjects were defined by a distinct expansion and persistence of a DN2 spike-reactive memory B cell pool and a contraction of spike-specific memory cTfh cells, contrasting with the sustained germinal center (GC)-driven activity mediated by mRNA vaccination in the healthy population. Among the SLE-associated factors that dampened the vaccine responses, treatment with the monoclonal antibody anti-BAFF/Belimumab (a lupus FDA- approved B cell targeting agent) profoundly affected the vaccine responsiveness by restricting the de novo B cell responses and promoting stronger extra-follicular (EF)-mediated responses that were associated with poor immunogenicity and impaired immunological memory. In summary, this study interrogates antigen-specific responses and characterized the immune cell landscape associated with mRNA vaccination in SLE. The identification of factors associated with reduced vaccine efficacy illustrates the impact of SLE B cell biology on mRNA vaccine responses and provides guidance for the management of boosters and recall vaccinations in SLE patients according to their disease endotype and modality of treatment.

Masks Do No More Than Prevent Transmission:Theory and Data Undermine the Variolation Hypothesis (preprint)

Background. Masking serves an important role in reducing the transmission of respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several perspective and review articles have also argued that masking reduces the risk of developing severe disease by reducing the inoculum dose received by the contact. This hypothesis, known as the variolation hypothesis, has gained considerable traction since its development. Methods. To assess the plausibility of this hypothesis, we develop a quantitative framework for understanding the relationship between (i) inoculum dose and the risk of infection and (ii) inoculum dose and the risk of developing severe disease. We parameterize the mathematical models underlying this framework with parameters relevant for SARS-CoV-2 to quantify these relationships empirically and to gauge the range of inoculum doses in natural infections. We then identify and analyze relevant experimental studies of SARS-CoV-2 to ascertain the extent of empirical support for the proposed framework. Results. Mathematical models, when simulated under parameter values appropriate for SARS-CoV-2, indicate that the risk of infection and the risk of developing severe disease both increase with an increase in inoculum dose. However, the risk of infection increases from low to almost certain infection at low inoculum doses (with <1000 initially infected cells). In contrast, the risk of developing severe disease is only sensitive to dose at very high inoculum levels, above 106 initially infected cells. By drawing on studies that have estimated transmission bottleneck sizes of SARS-CoV-2, we find that inoculum doses are low in natural SARS-CoV-2 infections. As such, reductions in inoculum dose through masking or greater social distancing are expected to reduce the risk of infection but not the risk of developing severe disease conditional on infection. Our review of existing experimental studies support this finding. Conclusions. We find that masking and other measures such as distancing that act to reduce inoculum doses in natural infections are highly unlikely to impact the contact's risk of developing severe disease conditional on infection. However, in support of existing empirical studies, we find that masking and other mitigation measures that reduce inoculum dose are expected to reduce the risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our findings therefore undermine the plausibility of the variolation hypothesis, underscoring the need to focus on other factors such as comorbidities and host age for understanding the heterogeneity in disease outcomes for SARS-CoV-2.

Modeling suggests that multiple immunizations or infections will reveal the benefits of updating SARS-CoV-2 vaccines (preprint)

When should vaccines to evolving pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 be updated? Our computational models address this focusing on updating SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to the currently circulating Omicron variant. Current studies typically compare the antibody titers to the new variant following a single dose of the original-vaccine versus the updated-vaccine in previously immunized individuals. These studies find that the updated-vaccine does not induce higher titers to the vaccine-variant compared with the original-vaccine, suggesting that updating may not be needed. Our models recapitulate this observation but suggest that vaccination with the updated-vaccine generates qualitatively different humoral immunity, a small fraction of which is specific for unique epitopes to the new variant. Our simulations suggest that these new variant-specific responses could dominate following subsequent vaccination or infection with either the currently circulating or future variants. We suggest a two-dose strategy for determining if the vaccine needs updating and for vaccinating high-risk individuals.

Antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in lung cancer patients: Reactivity to vaccine antigen and variants of concern. (preprint)

Purpose: We investigated SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine-induced binding and live-virus neutralizing antibody response in NSCLC patients to the SARS-CoV-2 wild type strain and the emerging Delta and Omicron variants. Methods: 82 NSCLC patients and 53 healthy adult volunteers who received SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines were included in the study. Blood was collected longitudinally, and SARS-CoV-2-specific binding and live-virus neutralization response to 614D (WT), B.1.617.2 (Delta), B.1.351 (Beta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variants were evaluated by Meso Scale Discovery (MSD) assay and Focus Reduction Neutralization Assay (FRNT) respectively. We determined the longevity and persistence of vaccine-induced antibody response in NSCLC patients. The effect of vaccine-type, age, gender, race and cancer therapy on the antibody response was evaluated. Results: Binding antibody titer to the mRNA vaccines were lower in the NSCLC patients compared to the healthy volunteers (P=<0.0001). More importantly, NSCLC patients had reduced live-virus neutralizing activity compared to the healthy vaccinees (P=<0.0001). Spike and RBD-specific binding IgG titers peaked after a week following the second vaccine dose and declined after six months (P=<0.001). While patients >70 years had lower IgG titers (P=<0.01), patients receiving either PD-1 monotherapy, chemotherapy or a combination of both did not have a significant impact on the antibody response. Binding antibody titers to the Delta and Beta variants were lower compared to the WT strain (P=<0.0001). Importantly, we observed significantly lower FRNT50 titers to Delta (6-fold), and Omicron (79-fold) variants (P=<0.0001) in NSCLC patients. Conclusions: Binding and live-virus neutralizing antibody titers to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in NSCLC patients were lower than the healthy vaccinees, with significantly lower live-virus neutralization of B.1.617.2 (Delta), and more importantly, the B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant compared to the wild-type strain. These data highlight the concern for cancer patients given the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant.

Severity of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in second wave determines likelihood of mild endemicity (preprint)

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is building up globally, but will this be sufficient to prevent future COVID-19 epidemics in the face of variants and waning immunity? Manaus, Brazil offers a concerning glimpse of what may come: six months after the majority of the city's population experienced primary infection, a second wave with a new strain resulted in more deaths than the first wave. Current hypotheses for this surge rely on prior immunity waning due to time and antigenic distance. Here we show this hypothesis predicts a severe endemic state. We propose an alternative hypothesis in which individuals infected in the first wave lose protection against transmission but retain immunity against severe disease and show this hypothesis is equally compatible with existing data. In this scenario, the increased number of deaths is due to an increased infection fatality ratio (IFR) for primary infections with the new variant. This alternative predicts a mild endemic state will be reached within decades. Collecting data on the severity of reinfections and infections post-vaccination as a function of time and antigenic distance from the original exposure is crucial for optimizing control strategies.

Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells (preprint)

Ending the COVID-19 pandemic will require long-lived immunity to SARS-CoV-2. We evaluated 254 COVID-19 patients longitudinally from early infection and for eight months thereafter and found a predominant broad-based immune memory response. SARS-CoV-2 spike binding and neutralizing antibodies exhibited a bi-phasic decay with an extended half-life of >200 days suggesting the generation of longer-lived plasma cells. In addition, there was a sustained IgG+ memory B cell response, which bodes well for a rapid antibody response upon virus re-exposure. Polyfunctional virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were also generated and maintained with an estimated half-life of 200 days. Interestingly, the CD4+ T cell response equally targeted several SARS-CoV-2 proteins, whereas the CD8+ T cell response preferentially targeted the nucleoprotein, highlighting the importance of including the nucleoprotein as a potential vaccine antigen. Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients.

Immunological characteristics govern the changing severity of COVID-19 during the transition to endemicity (preprint)

As prospects for eradicating CoV-2 dwindle, we are faced with the question of how the severity of CoV-2 disease may change in the years ahead. Will CoV-2 continue to be a pathogenic scourge that, like smallpox or measles, can be tamed only by ongoing vaccination, or will it join the ranks of mild endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs)? Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on HCoVs shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. We estimate the relevant parameters and incorporate them into a new epidemiological model framework which separates these different components of immunity. Our model recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the relatively benign nature of HCoVs; suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. The benign outcome at the endemic phase is contingent on the virus causing primary infections in children. We predict a very different outcome were a CoV like MERS (that causes severe disease in children) to become endemic. These results force us to re-evaluate control measures that rely on identifying and isolating symptomatic infections, and reconsider ideas regarding herd immunity and the use of immune individuals as shields to protect vulnerable groups.